Dorothy

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms, so Democrats are hoping to win seats in more conservative states like Florida in November. The Sunshine State, once a premier battleground state, has shifted steadily to the right in recent cycles, backing President Donald Trump by double-digits in the 2024 presidential race.

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll conducted by Cherry Communications between May 1 and May 9 among 604 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, found Donalds leading Jolly 47 percent to 39 percent.

What Prediction Markets and Forecasters Say Prediction markets tracking the Michigan governor's race point to a consistent Democratic advantage, though not a locked race.

On U.S.-regulated prediction market Kalshi, Republicans are priced at roughly a 78 percent chance of winning, compared with about 21 percent for Democrats. On Polymarket, the GOP is given a similar edge, at around 80 percent to 21 percent.

In recent days, the Supreme Court has sided with Republicans in Alabama and Louisiana who hope to redo their congressional maps to produce more GOP-leaning seats following the court’s decision in April that struck down a majority-Black U.S. House district in Louisiana as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

Democrats, meanwhile, are also pursuing targeted redraws in states where they hold power.

The House voted to allow redistricting to be considered after their regular work session ends May 14, but the resolution failed to get the needed two-thirds majority in the Senate.

The new map would reshape the 6th Congressional District, which is currently represented by Democratic Representative Cleo Fields, and redraw it to include Republican-leaning areas.

Democrat Jocelyn Benson has opened a decisive five-point lead over Republican John James in Michigan's gubernatorial race, according to new polling that reflects a dramatic consolidation of Democratic support and mounting headwinds for Republicans heading into November.

A MIRS/Mitchell Research poll, conducted between May 1-7, shows Benson leading Republican John James on 42 percent to 30 percent, while independent candidate Mike Duggan is on 13 percent. The poll questioned 607 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- six percent.