US Officials' Gulf Oil Transit Estimates Closer to Reality Amid Escalating Iran-Iraq Ties
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"Although our estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials' 8-10mb/d estimates. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Middle East conflict," Struyven told clients.
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CNBCThese revisions suggest oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz are probably close to Trump administration's estimates of 8 million bpd to 10 million bpd, they said. "The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict," Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, and his colleagues told clients. "Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027."
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But Iran has found leverage through its own strikes in the critical Strait of Hormuz, where relatively few vessels carrying oil and liquefied natural gas are risking passage. Trump again declared Thursday that the “Strait of Hormuz is open,” saying 24 vessels passed through a day earlier. That’s a fraction of the roughly 130 vessels that passed through the vital waterway daily before the war began.
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Common DreamsThe biggest weapon in Iran's arsenal has been its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for petroleum. Since the strait's closure, oil and gas prices have soared, costing US consumers an estimated $71.5 billion more to fill up their cars than they otherwise would have paid.
CNBCPresident Donald Trump reimposed the blockade on July 14 in retaliation for Iran attacking oil tankers transiting the Hormuz Strait. Tehran's crude loadings are down about 70% in August from 893,000 bpd last month.
ZeroHedgeThe takeaway from Goldman's Struyven is that, even though the critical waterway has not fully reopened, a growing fleet of dark tankers is transiting the strait and defying Iran's blockade. That raises the question we have asked in recent weeks: Is Iran's geopolitical leverage over the Strait of Hormuz eroding?
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The illegal war with Iran that President Donald Trump said would be over in a matter of weeks entered its sixth month on Friday, and there is little sign of it wrapping up in the near future.
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FortunePresident Donald Trump arrives at an awkward moment for his presidency on Friday as the U.S.-Israel war against Iran reaches the six-month mark, a notable milestone for a conflict that the Republican leader repeatedly assured Americans would be a “little excursion” lasting a matter of weeks.
BloombergIran War Hits 6 Month Mark Bloomberg Businessweek looks back on the past six months of the US war with Iran, including how President Trump's timeline for the conflict has shifted as talks with Tehran remain mostly stalled. Bloomberg News White House and National Security Editor Michelle Jamrisko discusses how the war has evolved, and what might come next. (Source: Bloomberg)
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01 ZeroHedge Brent crude futures initially jumped overnight after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump has no interest in reviving the memorandum of understanding (interim peace deal) reached with Iran in June. The war-risk premium in Brent has since faded in New York premarket trading amid mounting developments this week that major Gulf producers, including Kuwait and Qatar, are increasing tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Emerging diplomatic traction between Oman and Iran has also further reduced the perceived risk of a prolonged disruption.
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02 MarketWatch Goldman argues the oil market is ‘adapting’ to the conflict On the six-month anniversary of the war in Iran, divisions are apparent on Wall Street about the trajectory for oil prices, with some arguing markets may be a little too sanguine about the potential for further spikes.
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03 Common Dreams Trump has "lost the Iran War in every way possible in less than six months," said one critic.
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04 Fortune The turn to using sanctions as the cudgel of choice comes as the administration weighs diminished munitions stockpiles after months of war, sparking concerns that the prolonged conflict could undermine U.S. military readiness in other parts of the globe.
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05 CNBC Goldman Sachs estimates the Gulf states are exporting roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels of oil per day, or more than 60% of the amount the region supplied to the world before the Iran war started. Oil exports from the Gulf are still 7 million bpd to 8 million bpd below the normal level before the war, Goldman analysts estimated in a note Thursday. But shipments have surged 5 million bpd to 6 million bpd above the bottom hit in March during the worst phase of the war, they said.
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Sources (6)
- cnbc
- marketwatch
- zerohedge
- commondreams
- bloomberg
- fortune