Median Strategies Releases Fake Polling Data for Wisconsin and California Mayoral Races
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And Median Strategies didn’t just release fake polling data for the Wisconsin gubernatorial race — the Los Angeles mayoral race was also the victim of fabricated polling data. Median Strategies released a poll that indicated Mayor Karen Bass was “leading Raman by nearly 12 percentage points ahead of the Nov. 3 mayoral runoff.” The poll was purportedly conducted between July 30 and Aug. 5 amongst 560 voters in Los Angeles with a 4.1 percent margin of error. The company later revealed to The Los Angeles Times that the poll was also fake.
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BreitbartThe statement from Median Strategies comes as the firm released a fake poll which showed Karen Bass with a 12-point lead over her opponent Nithya Raman prior to the Los Angeles mayoral runoff race in November, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The Daily WireMedian Strategies directed media outlets on Monday to discount the polls it released this election season, claiming it was conducting an experiment on trust in unverified polling. The group released polls on the Los Angeles mayoral race and Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, which it now says were fabricated.
Fox NewsMedian Strategies, the company that released polls indicating Democratic Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles and Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong leading their rivals by wide margins, announced this week that the surveys were a hoax and that it has closed its doors.
Associated PressJust a few days later, the truth emerged: The poll was fabricated. The California results were among at least three “polls” across three states posted online this month by Median Strategies, a previously unknown organization that admitted to the Los Angeles Times on Monday that the purported results were fake. The company wrote before shuttering its website this week that it “was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”
Washington TimesJust a few days later, the truth emerged: The poll was fabricated. The California results were among at least three “polls” across three states posted online this month by Median Strategies, a previously unknown organization that admitted to the Los Angeles Times on Monday that the purported results were fake. The company wrote before shuttering its website this week that it “was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”
Washington ExaminerIn the days before the Wisconsin gubernatorial Democratic primary, a viral poll from a group called Median Strategies had Hong ahead of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by 23 points, feeding the false perception that she would be the nominee. On Monday, the firm revealed that its polls were all bogus after inquiries from the Los Angeles Times over a poll showing Bass 11 points ahead of her Democratic rival. While attention was focused on the Bass poll, others began connecting the dots to other fake polls.
New York TimesPolling Firm Released Fake Data in Hong and Bass Races as a ‘Social Experiment’ Median Strategies revealed that recent polls from the firm were intended to expose how easily false results can be spread.
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The trajectory of the California poll offers a cautionary tale about the perils of trusting unvetted polling. While high-quality independent polls still exist, they appear amid a slew of other surveys produced by outside groups, campaigns or super PACs or using undisclosed or questionable methodologies. It can be a struggle to make sense of the findings — and as the latest episode shows, even campaigns may end up falling for falsified data.
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Washington TimesBut it’s common for pollsters to release polls with minimal information about how the survey was conducted, what questions were asked, or who was behind it. Higher-quality polls rely on expensive methodologies, such as randomized sampling, so many pollsters opt for cheaper solutions. In addition, many election polls are conducted by campaigns or super PACs with a stake in the outcome of the race. This can leave few - if any - reliable and independent polls to evaluate in contests like midterm primaries.
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On Kalshi, the price of a “yes” contract on Bass winning the Los Angeles mayoral election rose two cents, from about 63 cents to about 65 cents, within fifteen minutes of Median’s post. On Polymarket, roughly twenty separate accounts traded thousands of contracts in Bass’s favor six minutes after the tweet.
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Associated PressOn Kalshi, the price of a “yes” contract on Bass winning the Los Angeles mayoral election rose two cents, from about 63 cents to about 65 cents, within fifteen minutes of Median’s post. On Polymarket, roughly twenty separate accounts traded thousands of contracts in Bass’s favor six minutes after the tweet.
6 details only one outlet reported
Independent claims that didn't surface elsewhere in our corpus. Treat as supplementary — not corroborated across outlets.
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01 Fox News Bass ended up edging Raman by 5 points in the primary, with Republican Spencer Pratt, who was running as an independent in the Democrat-dominated city, coming in third. The mayor and Raman will face off in the general election.
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02 Washington Times The post offered no explanation of who was behind the “experiment” or for what purpose.
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03 Associated Press The post offered no explanation of who was behind the “experiment” or for what purpose.
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04 The Daily Wire “Polling has a credibility problem. Ours is the fix: no partisan clients, no campaign or party money, numbers that go wherever the data takes them even when it’s inconvenient. Trustworthy polling, rebuilt,” the website said.
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05 Washington Examiner The fake polls have triggered widespread bewilderment, given how widely they were believed. Each poll was accompanied by all the trappings of a legitimate poll, including methodologies and a detailed analysis of what the poll indicated.
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06 The Federalist Francesca Hong, the failed communist candidate in the Wyoming gubernatorial primary race, was supposed to shellac David Crowley. After all, she had a 23-point lead over her opponent, according to data from Median Strategies.
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