Dorothy

Reinforcing this week's developments, new data from Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of oil research, show that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to more than two-thirds of prewar levels.

Goldman Sachs estimates the Gulf states are exporting roughly 15 million to 16 million barrels of oil per day, or more than 60% of the amount the region supplied to the world before the Iran war started. Oil exports from the Gulf are still 7 million bpd to 8 million bpd below the normal level before the war, Goldman analysts estimated in a note Thursday. But shipments have surged 5 million bpd to 6 million bpd above the bottom hit in March during the worst phase of the war, they said.

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz alone likely account for 8 million to 10 million barrels, close to US officials’ estimates, according to the Goldman note.

"Although our estimates focus on total Gulf flows, the upward revisions suggest Strait of Hormuz oil transits are likely close to US officials' 8-10mb/d estimates. The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Middle East conflict," Struyven told clients.

“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” Goldman said in the note.

He noted, "Shipping markets now price in disruptions likely continuing well into 2027 (Exhibit 7). Still, potential additional dark flows and price-sensitive China net crude imports may moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer. We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude."

It was supposed to be quick. Still, six months after the U.S. and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran, the conflict drags on. The Trump administration has replaced its military war with an economic one, but the result is likely to be no different, analysts said, with a lack of American clarity about goals, a decline in American credibility and a strategic defeat.

The turn to using sanctions as the cudgel of choice comes as the administration weighs diminished munitions stockpiles after months of war, sparking concerns that the prolonged conflict could undermine U.S. military readiness in other parts of the globe.

However, since the conflict restarted in July after a brief pause, Mr. Trump has been reluctant to cede any ground to Iran. He told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that he was “not in a hurry” to reach a diplomatic solution to the war.

Instead, the Trump administration has leaned on economic pressure. This week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast,” an expansion of secondary sanctions on countries retaining economic ties to Iran.