Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's First Press Conferences Leave Markets Uncertain About Future
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Warsh's first pair of press conferences as Fed chairman left many in the markets uncertain about where he stood on the path of interest rates, prompting bond traders to sell off long-term debt to account for the uncertainty. At a closely watched speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, Warsh showed he had heard those critics. He came as close as he is ever likely to do to indicating he is on the precipice of raising interest rates if inflation doesn't improve, based on his own idiosyncratic reading of price data.
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New York Post BusinessFederal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Friday there may be “work to do” on inflation, though he again danced around his outlook on interest rates during a closely-watched speech at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyo., retreat.
MarketWatchKevin Warsh passed another big test as a new Federal Reserve chairman on Friday: He said the central bank still has work to do on inflation, and the bond market took him at his word.
BloombergWarsh Sets the Tone for Fed’s Road Ahead Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech gave central bankers and investors greater clarity on how he views the economy and the Fed’s path ahead, though questions remain about the timing and number of potential rate hikes. Bloomberg Odd Lots co-host Joe Weisenthal is on Bloomberg This Weekend to discuss the annual gathering, where monetary policy debates mix with informal conversations among some of the world’s most influential central bankers. (Source: Bloomberg)
Epoch Times BusinessIn his keynote address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Aug. 28, Warsh said headline inflation readings over the summer have come in better than expected, though underlying pressures remain a concern.
FortuneWhile Warsh didn’t signal explicitly his support for a hike, he warned inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and that policymakers must be confident it is. Otherwise, he said, they had “work to do.”
BBC BusinessFederal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh said while inflation readings looked better than expected over the summer, they did not show that the current picture had "meaningfully improved".
Financial TimesWarsh says Fed will have ‘work to do’ if inflation does not fall soon Central bank chair signals rising concerns over persistently elevated price increases
RealClearMarketsA September Rate Hike? Warsh Sure Sounded Hawkish Tom Lauricella, Morningstar The new Fed chair's Jackson Hole speech appeared focused on strengthening his anti-inflation credentials, economists say.
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“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job,” he said.
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Epoch Times Business“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job … our mandate … and our charge to keep.” This is a developing story. Please check back for further updates.
New York Post Business“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” Warsh said. “Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job … our mandate … and our charge to keep.”
BBC Business"Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."
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In July, inflation hit 3.4% – down from levels above 4% in May but still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% goal.
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FortuneConsider the Consumer Price Index, which purports to measure “inflation” by tracking changes in consumer prices. The July CPI came in at 3.4%, slightly below the June figure of 3.5% — and still far above the Fed’s 2% policy target.
BBC BusinessThe latest figures showed prices rose 3.4% in the year to July, above the Fed's 2% target.
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Traders now see a nearly 60% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool . One day ago, that probability stood at just 35%. Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to elaborate on his belief that central bankers shouldn't telegraph future policy moves to the market, a practice known in Fedspeak as "forward guidance." Warsh acknowledged that forward guidance was essential during the Great Recession, when the practice came about (Warsh was a Fed governor during that time). However, he said he believes it has now outrun its usefulness and, in some ways, does more harm than good. He argued it adds to the "noise" and drowns out important market "signals" that the Fed needs appropriately modify monetary policy.
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New York Post BusinessAhead of Warsh’s speech, traders saw 35% odds that the Fed issues a quarter-point rate hike at its September 16 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
10 details only one outlet reported
Independent claims that didn't surface elsewhere in our corpus. Treat as supplementary — not corroborated across outlets.
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01 Epoch Times Business The U.S. Treasury borrowed most of its money from global bond markets, including individual investors, pension funds, banks, and foreign governments.
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02 Financial Times How finance redeemed itself And what tech, the new black sheep, can learn from it
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03 Bloomberg Inside the Dangote Family: Lessons from Aliko Dangote (Video)
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04 Fortune Here are some of the key takeaways from the conference: Warsh Emerging Warsh used a keynote speech to hammer home a message that curbing inflation is the central bank’s top priority.
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05 New York Post Business Warsh said the “good news” is that inflation estimates in the medium-term “look stable” – but he added that this summer’s inflation readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
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06 ZeroHedge Three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise rates in July. However, the Committee held the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan all expect a September hike. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points in June and is expected to raise them again in September.
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07 NPR Economy NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with David Wilcox, with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about what investors and economists are hoping to hear from the Fed chair's speech Friday.
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08 CNBC Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. The stock market is failing to hold onto its morning gains, as Wall Street digests Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. The S & P 500 is down about 0.25%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is off about 0.4%. The Dow industrials are basically flat. Still, it's been a winning week for markets. Treasury yields are higher across the curve, with the market interpreting Warsh's speech — particularly his comment that the Fed has more "work to do" to tame inflation — as hawkish.
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09 BBC Business Published The head of the US central bank said policymakers will "have work to do" to if they are not confident cost of living pressures are easing for Americans.
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10 MarketWatch Market Extra Kevin Warsh gets what every Fed chair hopes for: A bond market that trust his words
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